Showing posts with label Basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Basketball. Show all posts

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Defense and the concept of diminishing returns


In basketball, though it isn’t discussed particularly often (or wasn’t until talents were taken to south beach) there are diminishing returns on offense skill. There are a limited number of minutes and shots per team, and while more good offensive players will tend to increase the general efficiency of their teammates, there is a theoretical limit to how much each additional offensive upgrade will make the team better.[1]

The same is true in hockey and football, though probably to a lesser extent in the hockey than in basketball. In baseball, nine players have to hit (whereas in the extreme basketball case, a Wilt/AI/Kobe/Carmelo can shoot the ball 90% of time while his team watches for a quarter or more), so, while you will see some diminishing returns if you hit an amazing hitter ninth in the order, the fact that the ninth player is generating fewer outs will actually improve the total offensive output (a team with nine .400 OBP guys will get 2-3 more baserunners and trips to the plate per game than a team with nine .300 OBP hitters, which gives them a better chance to score more runs).[2] In hockey, I would assume it would take much longer to see diminishing returns since so there are so many more players involved. If you have three A+ centers, while the other team has only one, you will have a distinct advantage because every team has to play at least three centers in every game.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Random thought: Free Steve Nash

Watching Steve Nash--the symbol of all that is good and holy in a basketball offense--play with Vince Carter on the Suns was possibly the worst part of last year's wonderful basketball season. (Other contenders: Z-Bo not making the finals, and thus not forcing announcers of nationally televised games to uncomfortably discuss the fact that he needed to appear in a court that month, not just on one; the 24-stretch where every mention of basketball on a sports show required showing Rondo's injury; the realization that Tim Duncan can no longer single-handedly defend two good big men by himself; Steve Nash not making the playoffs.)

The one thing we can hope for is that the least alike pairing in the NBA (Nash works hard, passes first, rises to the moment, and once played with one eye swollen shut; Carter doesn't, doesn't, doesn't, and falls down if you blow on him) will be split up once Suns ownership realizes that this team isn't going anywhere. Ideally, they would trade Nash to a contender, but I would settle for somehow getting rid of Vince Carter, so that I was at least able to root for an underdog team with likable players and a good work ethic.