Thursday, September 1, 2011

2011 MVP

It’s the time of year when we start talking about the baseball MVPs. In the last week, approximately everyone and their mother has written an article debating whether Verlander should win the AL MVP. All this follows on the heal of whether Adrian Gonzalez should win it, and then Pedroia had the monster July, and then there was talk of Granderson/Ellsbury… long story short, everyone suspects that Bautista is doping and / or cheating and is really wary of giving it to him. That, or they think that MVP candidates should win based on whether their team does. Also, no one has been inspired by the NL.


In any case, I thought I would go over the candidates by looking at various voting strategies, starting with best player by WAR (BP), Runs/RBIs (R/R), defense (D), perceived leadership (PL), winning-ness of team (WT), and MVP “feel” (F). I’ll rank the players, 10 points down based on what I think as a serious baseball fan for the categories that you could actually rank and a number I deem appropriate based on my gut for the others. And, obviously, I neither have a vote nor have any chance of swaying it, so this is all just for fun. AL first (you’ll notice that what follows are the top ten WAR guys in the league):

Player
Team
BP
R/R
D
PL
WT
F
Total
Bautista
TOR
10
8
4
5
5
5
37
Ellsbury
BOS
9
7
9
1
7
7
40
Pedroia
BOS
8
5
10
10
7
7
47
Granderson
NYY
7
10
3
5
7
7
39
Verlander
DET
6
0
0
10
5
5
26
Sabathia
NYY
5
0
0
3
7
3
18
Zobrist
TBR
4
3
7
1
5
1
21
Gordon
KCR
3
6
5
7
1
3
25
Gonzalez
BOS
2
9
6
7
7
7
38
Kinsler
TEX
1
4
8
3
7
3
26

There we go! Pedroia should be the next AL MVP.[1] But I’m not totally comfortable with this result. I don’t think it quite gets the intangibles enough. So I’m adding a couple categories, including “looks good when playing baseball based on what I have seen while watching baseball” (LG), cool nickname (CN), and “is a member of a team that starts with R” (R).

Player
Team
BP
R/R
D
PL
WT
F
LG
CN
R
Total
Bautista
TOR
10
8
4
5
5
0
10
0
47
Ellsbury
BOS
9
7
9
1
7
7
7
0
10
57
Pedroia
BOS
8
5
10
10
7
7
7
10
10
74
Granderson
NYY
7
10
3
5
7
7
7
0
0
46
Verlander
DET
6
0
0
10
5
5
7
0
0
33
Sabathia
NYY
5
0
0
3
7
3
0
0
0
18
Zobrist
TBR
4
3
7
1
5
1
0
10
0
31
Gordon
KCR
3
6
5
7
1
3
7
0
10
42
Gonzalez
BOS
2
9
6
7
7
7
5
0
10
53
Kinsler
TEX
1
4
8
3
7
3
5
0
10
41

That’s better. Red Sox finishing 1 and 2 with Pedroia getting a landslide. Seems about right. Now, for the NL.

Player
Team
BP
R/R
D
PL
WT
F
Total
Halladay
PHI
10
0
0
10
7
10
37
Votto
CIN
9
8
5
10
3
10
45
Kemp
LAD
8
10
10
1
1
7
37
Tulo
COR
7
6
9
10
5
5
42
Upton
ARZ
6
7
10
10
7
10
50
Victorino
PHI
5
4
8
1
7
1
26
Braun
MIL
4
9
4
5
7
5
34
Kershaw
LAD
3
0
0
7
1
1
12
McCutchen
PIT
2
5
6
7
1
5
26
Hamels
PHI
1
0
0
1
7
1
10

Now, I like Upton fine, and if I 1. had a ballot, and 2. was told I had to vote for a position player, Upton might very well appear at the top because there’s some subconscious part of my head that can’t get away from correlating individual success and team success and the difference between him and Votto is really fairly minimal. But let’s change this one around as well: I’m going to add “teammates aren’t exceptional (TE),” “doesn’t get enough respect (DR),” and stick with cool nickname (CN), because I think we have a good thing going there.

Player
Team
BP
R/R
D
PL
WT
F
TE
DR
CN
Total
Halladay
PHI
10
0
0
10
7
10
0
10
10
57
Votto
CIN
9
8
5
10
3
10
10
0
0
55
Kemp
LAD
8
10
10
1
1
7
10
0
0
47
Tulo
COR
7
6
9
10
5
5
10
10
10
72
Upton
ARZ
6
7
10
10
7
10
10
0
0
60
Victorino
PHI
5
4
8
1
7
1
0
10
0
36
Braun
MIL
4
9
4
5
7
5
0
0
0
34
Kershaw
LAD
3
0
0
7
1
1
10
5
0
17
McCutchen
PIT
2
5
6
7
1
5
10
10
0
46
Hamels
PHI
1
0
0
1
7
1
0
5
0
15

Yeah, that’s ok. I mean, Tulo’s a shortstop, which is clearly the coolest position, and he straight up doesn’t get enough respect, which is really key for me.

The point, as you might have guessed, is that these categories are kindof random. It’s telling that there isn’t a whole lot of a pattern in terms of who finished where when compared to actual skill level (except that I shafted pitchers). But so are the categories that many voters use. I would hate voting for a first baseman if I had a ballot. If Paul Konerko has a season for the ages but ran and defended like he does, it would do everything I could to justify not voting for him because I like guys who play defense and run well. I think they’re more interesting.

And I don’t think that is necessarily wrong. I like having room for different opinions: last year’s almost unanimous vote for Votto really annoyed me because it should have been much closer; because there should have been those who said that they valued Pujols’ x over Votto’s y. I use WAR a lot here, but I don’t think it is be-all-end-all of measurements. If someone told me they decided that most valuable player meant player who brings the most value in the most ways and then went out, examined data and/or scouting reports, watched everyone they could, and decided that the answer was Justin Upton because he was good at everything, I might question their command of the English language, but I wouldn’t disagree with that being a valid way of going about the decision. Similarly, if you decide most valuable meant most valuable to the team, and decided to evaluate based on what percentage of a team’s offense/defense/pitching a player accounted for, I’d think you were a little odd, but I wouldn’t object too loudly.

My problem comes when people assume that Joey Bats isn’t a good leader because his team is losing; I would bet that every member of that team would say that he’s as much of a “leader” as they have ever played with. I find fault when someone says they’ll vote for Curtis Granderson because he means more to the league than anyone else, because that’s impossible to determine and really doesn’t mean anything,[3] or  when they insist on voting for Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard because their teams are winning and those players are the “faces” of the team, even if they are, by almost any measurement, not the best player on their own teams.

My problem comes with the unspoken undertone of this year’s AL MVP race, where various writers seem to want to take any excuse to vote for someone other than Bautista. Why? The only explanation I can think of is because he isn’t doing it right: he isn’t a heralded prospect finally hitting his stride, he isn’t a guy having a comeback year, he isn’t a scion of a great franchise, or an established star who is finally getting a shot at it. He’s a journeyman with no real position who bounced around before someone finally let him loose, and for so many around the sport, it feels too much like steroids, too much like getting there without paying the dues along the way (never mind the years of being bounced around in the minors, that doesn’t count). Frankly, the only reason that Bautista might not win the MVP this year is because too many of the voters will be willing to depart from the game to vote on a feeling and prejudice with no demonstrable connection to play on the field.


[1] Honest to god, I didn’t plan this, as evidenced by the fact that I’m going to put in my next joke anyway, even though I get the same result.
[2] The Blue Jays are .500 in a harder division than Detroit and with a better run differential. Honestly, I think they would win the Central this year if given the chance. Which is why I think the most unfair thing about rewarding players on winning teams is not rewarding a player for the play of their teammates but punishing them for being in the same division as three of the best four teams in the AL and probably three of the top seven in the game. Case in point, Toronto has a .54 winning percentage against everyone else, .44 against the AL East. That’s not even to mention the Rays.
[3] Does he sell the most tickets? Does he expand the sport the most? Is he crucial to their marketing campaign? Does he just play in the biggest market? Oh… ok. It’s the last one.

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